The Palestinian territories are experiencing relentless onslaughts by the Israeli occupation and its settlers. In the past two years, these have grown more violent, targeting the entire Palestinian community throughout Palestine. Israeli occupation forces assault Palestinians on a daily basis, violate their rights, arrest them, and confiscate their land and property, to say nothing of the daily and violent incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque by Zionist settlers protected by the army of occupation. Thus, in 2022 alone, and on August 5 of that year, the occupation regime launched a vicious assault against the Gaza Strip, resulting in the martyrdom of 47 people in the space of 3 days, while in the West Bank, 171 people were martyred during the year 2022 alone.[1]
Since October 7, 2023, the occupation army has been waging a genocidal war on the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip, accompanied by massacres and massive destruction to more than 70 % of buildings, installations, and infrastructure in that Strip, while basic health and food services have ceased to function. But the longer lasting effects of this vicious assault which will leave deep and negative economic, demographic, social, and psychological effects urgently require the attention of researchers, scholars and academic institutions with a view to assessing their effects. These latter are dangerous and widespread, impacting all sectors of the Palestinian population in Gaza and the West Bank, and it is estimated that they will last long after the end of the war. Here, this paper will focus on the impact of Israel’s assault on the demographic situation of Gaza’s population.
The demographic situation in pre-war Gaza:
A youthful society with about 70% of the population below the age of 30
The available data indicate that on the eve of Israel’s war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip amounted to about 2.2 million[2], living in an area of 365 square kms, and representing about 40 % of the total number of inhabitants of Palestine, some 5.3 million. Most of these inhabitants, some 67%, are refugees who were forced to flee from their villages and towns during the 1948 war. The inhabitants are spread over 5 Palestinian provinces which constitute the Gaza Strip. According to estimates dating to mid-2023, some 1.2 million Palestinians live in the two provinces of Northern Gaza (Jabaliya) and Gaza (north of Wadi Gaza), while the other 1 million live in the provinces of Khan Yunis, Dayr al-Balah and Rafah.
The distribution by age of the population of the Gaza Strip indicates a predominantly youthful society. The ratio of the population below the age of 17 (the UNICEF definition of children) is about 47% of the total while the ratio of those below the age of 30 amount to 70%. The ratio of the elderly, i.e. above the age of 65, is only 3%. The median age of the population, i.e. the age that divides the population into two equal parts, is about 19.5.[3] In other words, half the population are below that age and the other half are above it.
The annual birth rate in the Gaza Strip is estimated at 60,000, with some 5000 new babies born each month, while the death rate registered annually during normal times is about 9000. Hence the rate of natural increase per annum is between 50,000 and 52,000 and the average annual increase of the population amounts to 2.7 %. According to these data, the average fertility rate of Palestinian women in the Gaza Strip is about 3.9 births, while the average life span is 74 years. The data indicate that the average number of marriage contracts registered annually in the Gaza Strip are about 20,000, with a monthly average of about 1500 contracts, whereas divorce cases amount to about 4000 annually.[4]
The data also indicate that about 400,000 Palestinian families live in the Gaza Strip with an average family size of 5.5 individuals[5], and most of these are nuclear families (consisting of one or two parents and their children.)
As a result of Israel’s onslaughts, the figure of victims and the injured among Palestinians is horrendous, occurring in a short span of time relative to the population number in the Gaza Strip
From the start of Israel’s assault on October 7, 2023, and until the time of the present writing, some 30,000 have suffered martyrdom in Gaza[6], and about 7000 are missing, constituting about 1.7 % of the total population which is about 2.2 million. Thus, the number of victims and others as good as dead (the missing) is huge and unprecedented if we bear in mind the area of the Gaza Strip, its population and the time span of the assault. This means that a country with, say, a population of 100 million has lost about 1.7 million of them in the space of less than five months since the assault began. Here, we might remember that the total dead in World War II, which lasted about 5 years, was about 40 million, constituting some 2.5% of the earth’s population. In the two years since the start of the Ukraine war, some 70,000 Ukrainians were killed, representing only 0.07 % of the population of that country.
The number of injured in Gaza is about 73,000[7], about 30% of whom are expected to suffer from permanent disabilities. Thus, 22 to 25 thousand new persons with disabilities will be added to the already about 60,000 persons disabled[8] in the pre-war period according to available data, and these are in urgent need of care and of medical, social and psychological rehabilitation.
Hence, by adding the figures of the wounded, the victims and those missing, the number of those directly affected by the Israeli onslaught is at present about 110,000 Palestinians, representing some 5% of the total population of the Gaza Strip, a ratio that seems horrifying.
The direct impact of the onslaught on the demography of Gaza, and predictions of an unprecedented fall in rates of growth and natural increase, and the major effect of this on the age structure of the population in coming years
As indicated by previous data and figures to do with the birth rate and natural and unnatural deaths (death due to lack of food, medical care and the direct targeting of hospitals and clinics etc.) as well as victims; and keeping in mind that a few thousand Palestinians managed to leave Gaza when permitted to do so, those being people of various nationalities, both foreigners and Palestinians, the expected rate of growth for 2023 will, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, fall by about 2.7% to become less than 1 %. In 2024, and particularly after mid-year, the birth and fertility rate will fall by a huge ratio which is near zero, due to parents not conceiving because of the current situation and fearing for the health of mothers and babies. To this must be added a drop in new marriages during and after the onslaught to extremely low levels. This means that the rate of population growth for 2024 will not exceed 0.5 % and that this rate will continue to drop while the onslaught continues. In other words, expected population growth for 2023 and the two years following, at least during the war, will not be equal to what had been expected for a single year, meaning that the number of the population will not exceed 2.3 million for the period 2023-2025, whereas estimates predicted the population figure to exceed 2.4 million in 2025. This makes it necessary to drastically revise population estimates in view of that savage assault.
Furthermore, it is expected that the distribution by age and kind of the population will be affected directly by the Israeli army’s targeting of specific age groups like the youth and children, leading to a distortion in the demographic pyramid, especially at its base, and further leading to loss of its uniform shape characteristic of that pyramid in Gaza. If we regard Israeli bombardment as haphazard and without distinguishing between population groups, since entire families are targeted and thousands of families are estimated to have been wiped out from the civil register, the immediate impact on age and kind distribution will affect all age groups by about 1.7% of the total of each age group. In either case, the base of the pyramid and the youth group below age 30 will be the one most affected by the onslaught. This is because that category represents about 70% of the total population, as mentioned above. One should add that the medium- and long-term impact is expected to affect the age distribution. This will result in a drop in the birth rate in coming years since these constitute the base of the demographic pyramid, a result of the targeting of the fertile age group or the one expected to contribute to the bearing of children in the years following Israel’s onslaught.
The expulsion of a vast number of Gaza’s population from their homes has led to a radical transformation of the demographic structure in the towns and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip
The ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip is regarded as the most severe, demographically speaking, as to the numbers of martyrs and the missing and the forcible dispersion of the population. There is no doubt that the eviction of most of the population in record time has led to transforming the demographic structure in all towns and camps in the Gaza Strip. This is not merely an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe but constitutes a major obstacle to the possibility of returning them to the areas they had been driven out of through intense bombardment from land, sea, and air.[9] This forcible eviction can drive the population to leave the Gaza Strip under various pretexts. Israel’s onslaught has led to clear demographic changes in the structure and distribution of Gaza’s population in spatial terms, especially since the inhabitants of the northern regions were forcibly evicted and driven southwards or even outside the Gaza Strip under the pretext of their own security and safety, were it not for the steadfast refusal of the inhabitants to obey the orders to move out of the Strip. This Israeli plan was also opposed by neighboring countries.
Estimates indicate that some 1.9 million Palestinians[10] from a total of 2.2 million are now refugees, constituting about 90% of the total population of the Strip. Most of them have been evicted more than once, and many families have been forced to separate and disperse among various centers and places of refuge, especially in the southern region of the Strip. Some 2 million people are now confined in an area no more than 100 sq kms, i.e. an average of 20,000 people per 1 sq km. This massive overcrowding exposes the population to diseases and epidemics, forcing many to return to where they had come from, thus exposing themselves and their families to mortal danger. They preferred this to remaining in vastly overcrowded centers where basic services are non-existent. Estimates indicate the spreading of many types of disease as a result of that overcrowding, a matter which endangers the lives of children, the elderly and the chronically ill. In turn, this means that the death rate, especially among young children and the suckling, will multiply many times and reach unprecedented levels. This should be contrasted to the death rate in 2019 among that group below the age of 5, which was about 13 and 17 cases respectively for each 1000 live births.
These then are preliminary estimates for the demographic situation that will follow the Israeli assault. To obtain a deeper and more detailed study of the demographic impact of the assault on Gaza’s inhabitants, there exists an urgent need to recount the number of inhabitants of the Strip, this to include demographic figures as to their precise conditions after the assault has ended and once the circumstances allow this. The aim is to study the direct and indirect human losses due to the assault and the demographic transformations which that assault effected.
Conclusion
As Israel’s onslaught enters its fifth month, we note that it has created fundamental transformations in the demography of the Gaza Strip. The ongoing genocide, the killing of the innocent and the decimation of entire Palestinian families are expected to affect significant changes in the numbers of the population and their expected growth rate. It is also expected that this will lead to instability in the structure of the population and their make-up as regards age and gender. Likewise, forcing the population into internal exile has led to changing the demographics of all cities and camps in the Gaza Strip. This represents, not merely a human catastrophe but also a huge obstacle to returning the displaced to their original homes from which they were driven. Furthermore, the plan to drive out the entire population from the Strip at a future stage, as per many statements made by Israeli officials, brings back to mind the memories of yet another expulsion and yet another Nakba, since most Gazans are former refugees from 1948.
It may be premature to anticipate what will happen after that onslaught ends. But in view of current economic and developmental indicators, and without reaching the ceiling of demographic catastrophe that warns of an imminent demographic danger in the Gaza Strip, it is estimated that the levels of poverty and hunger will rise to unprecedented levels. The Human Development Index will experience a decrease which could push the Strip back by about two decades,[11] in addition to the expected effects on the health and education sectors, and the total destruction of the infrastructure of the Strip. All this can intensify the suffering of the population, threatening the spread of disease and epidemics, and causing a rise in the death rate and a lower life expectancy at birth.
References:
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[1] موقع وزارة الصحة الفلسطينية.
[2] "كتاب فلسطين الإحصائي السنوي 2023"، رام الله –فلسطين: الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء الفلسطيني، 2023.
[3] "السكان في نهاية عام 2023"، رام الله - فلسطين: الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء الفلسطيني، 2023.
[4] "السكان في نهاية عام 2023"، رام الله - فلسطين: الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء الفلسطيني، 2023.
[5] "تقديرات مبنية على النتائج النهائية للتعداد العام للسكان والمساكن والمنشات 2017"، رام الله - فلسطين: الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء الفلسطيني، 2023.
[6] وزارة الصحة الفلسطينية، UN OCHA.
[7] وزارة الصحة الفلسطينية، UN OCHA.
[8] بيان صحافي بمناسبة اليوم العالمي للأفراد ذوي الإعاقة، رام الله – فلسطين: الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء الفلسطيني.
[9] أيمن زهري، "تداعيات الحرب في غزة على تنامي ظاهرة اللجوء والنزوح"، "آفاق مستقبلية"، العدد 4 (2024).
[10] وكالة الأمم المتحدة لإغاثة وتشغيل الفلسطينيين (UNRWA).
[11] "حرب غزة: التداعيات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية المتوقعة على دولة فلسطين"، الإسكوا (UNESCWA، 2023).