The pre-October 7 international order: Between tensions and transitions
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1991 heralded the advent of an era of unipolarity, characterized by the hegemonic domination of the United States and its Western allies. This new international order was marked by the forced universalization of a set of "liberal" values, which the Western powers imposed on the rest of the world as a precondition for joining the society of states. The rules of the international game were dictated by the United States, which was quick to describe itself as the moral guide of humanity. Since 1991, this order has dominated - but never seduced - the rest of the world, primarily the nations of the "Global South". Left without an ideological and strategic alternative since the fall of the USSR and the fading of the non-aligned movement, these countries have been forced to follow its rules and principles, at the risk of being branded "rogue states" or kept on the periphery of international affairs.
However, since the late 1990s, a "power shift" has taken place within the international economic sphere, to the extent that the cumulative economic capacities of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) exceeded those of the G7 countries in 2020 [1]. This "shift" has gradually been transferred to the international political arena. These "rising markets" have sought to convert their newly-acquired economic weight into political and diplomatic power[2]. Another thing these countries have in common is that they are not Western. They share the humiliation common to the countries of the global South of having been either colonized or kept on the periphery of the international order by the Western powers. This humiliation has given rise to a clear demand on their part: to obtain recognition, equal treatment and representation in the contemporary system of global governance.
The BRICS have thus gradually become the "locomotive" of a world in transition. This has given rise to a desire for far-reaching reform of the international system, as well as a chorus of protests against the Western order and what these countries see as its many vices and hypocrisies. Double standards" and "double standards", which consist in Western countries sparing themselves and their allies the application of the supposedly "universal" principles they impose on the rest of the world, take pride of place as objects of anger and indignation.
Palestine as a symbol and catalyst of global power relations
For these countries, Palestine is a symbol. As the last case of unfinished decolonization in the world, it represents the last thread holding the countries of the global South to their past, preventing them - and humanity - from definitively turning the page on humiliation : colonial identity. As the epicenter of the identity of the populations of the Arab-Muslim world, Palestine resonates globally. It is the most visible embodiment of the Western "double standard", absolving Israel of its crimes in the name of its alleged "unconditional" right to defend itself - a right which the West considers more imperative than the preservation of Palestinian human lives. It also symbolizes America's failure to influence its Israeli ally to find a just and lasting solution to the situation. An open graveyard for America's reputation in the region, it is a unique source of global prestige for anyone who can do better than American diplomacy. Anyone who prides themselves on wanting to become - or to be - a great power cannot ignore this issue, and has an obligation to position themselves accordingly.
Since Barack Obama, however, the United States has gradually made Palestine, and the Middle East more generally, a peripheral issue, in order to "pivot" towards the Indo-Pacific, the sphere of influence of its rival China. Their disengagement from the region has prompted some historical partners - such as Saudi Arabia - to accentuate their turn towards the East - already initiated several years ago in the commercial sphere - in order to reduce their dependence and diversify their strategic partnerships, without disavowing their traditional alliance with Washington. However, this "multi-alignment" reflects a growing concern on the part of these players with regard to an American partner seen as increasingly unreliable. This strategy of diversification was taken a step further in 2023, with the integration of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Iran into the BRICS group. This enlargement consolidates Russian and Chinese ambitions and support in the region, and demonstrates that the shift in political power desired by these states at global level necessarily passes through the Middle East.
The post-October 7 international order
United States
The American strategy put in place since October 7 illustrates Washington's great difficulty in grasping the changes underway over the last twenty years, both in the region and on a global scale.
By maintaining the traditional American position of unconditional support for Israel's right to defend itself, whatever the cost, Joe Biden is persisting with the much-criticized "double standards". This inconsistency is particularly blatant in Washington's virulent condemnation of Russian war crimes in Ukraine[3] - despite the embarrassing similarities with Israel's actions in Gaza. Ukraine thus acts as a magnifying mirror of the American double standard and its growing inability to justify it, at a time when the extreme gravity of Israel's actions in Gaza makes it even more obscene than before.
By vetoing a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire on October 18, 2023[4], and by voting against a UN General Assembly resolution on the same subject on October 27[5], the United States is also persisting in its strategy - also widely criticized - of systematically obstructing the intervention of multilateral institutions in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. These votes further antagonize the countries of the Global South, who see the United States as a "spoiler" of multilateralism, ready to undermine the functioning of governance institutions.
The U.S. is a world leader when it tries to hold one of its allies to its obligations under international humanitarian law.
On October 20, 2023, Joe Biden used the word "evil"[6] to describe Hamas, and recalled the role of the United States as a "beacon to the world" and an "indispensable nation". At a time when ideology no longer dictates the configuration of alliances or world order, this umpteenth reference to the alleged ideological and moral supremacy of the United States proves that the American administration is still omnipresent in its use of an obsolete and outdated grid for analyzing the world. Political decision-makers in the Global South have long regarded America's moral pretensions as unnecessarily exasperating. Washington's emphasis on them revives the image of America as both arrogant and impotent, and proves America's inability to take these actors' perceptions into account in its foreign policy calculations. The war in Gaza, with its extreme brutality and parallels with Ukraine, could prove to be the hypocrisy of the South's global opinion.
China
For several years now, notably through the development of its New Silk Roads project and the signing of several strategic partnerships, China has been developing its influence in the Middle East. Capitalizing on the poor reputation and declining influence of the United States, Beijing is using the Middle East and Palestine as "springboards" and catalysts of power in its quest for influence on a global scale. As the successful orchestrator of an unhoped-for reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023[7], China has proved that it is capable of being more than a commercial giant. By coming into direct competition with the Americans in their own backyard, Beijing has demonstrated to regional and global players its ability to embody a credible and potentially more attractive diplomatic alternative to the United States. Hitherto cautious on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, Beijing has nevertheless been slow to launch a strong initiative for peace and justice in the region, commensurate with its global diplomatic ambitions. In any case, the October 7 earthquake is playing into Beijing's hands for the time being, and this trend will persist unless the United States achieves a major diplomatic success on the issue, such as a lasting ceasefire, Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the resumption of peace negotiations.
Russia
To date, Russia appears to be one of the main beneficiaries of the current war. Since October 7, all eyes - and potentially some military resources[8] - have turned away from Ukraine and towards Gaza and Israel, giving Moscow unhoped-for latitude. Moscow's positioning as leader of a so-called anti-Western bloc also enables it to capitalize on the United States' poor reputation in the region. Its pro-Palestinian and anti-Western rhetoric appeals to opinion in the Arab-Muslim world and, more generally, in the global South, reducing Russian isolation and strengthening its soft power on a regional and global scale. Strengthened by America's gradual withdrawal from the region, Russia also wishes to emerge as an alternative leader to Washington on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, notably through a strategy of multilateral diplomatic activism, in line with its the advent of a multipolar world. The UN Security Council's rejection of two Moscow-sponsored resolutions calling for a ceasefire on October 16[9] and 25[10], 2023, without the United States having to veto them, shows the limits of Russian influence on an issue still dominated by Washington, and proves that, while the American decline on the international stage is certainly underway, Washington remains an unavoidable leader in the global diplomatic sphere.
Conclusion
The earthquake of October 7 proved once again the centrality of the Palestinian question in global affairs. The United States was brutally reminded of its duty as the world's policeman, in a region where it had initiated its disengagement, and on an issue which it had gambled to put on the back burner, thanks in particular to the normalization of relations between Israel and a growing number of Arab states. This war is taking place in a global context of "power shift" on the international scene and growing contestation of the liberal international order by many non-Western countries, particularly China and Russia. The latter are using the Middle East as a springboard for their international struggle for influence. The longer the war between Israel and Hamas continues, the more the credibility of the United States, and the West more generally, in the countries of the South will be threatened. The future of world order will therefore depend in part on the ability of the United States to find a way out of the current crisis, not only in the short term militarily, but above all in the long term politically.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1412425/gdp-ppp-share-world-gdp-g7-brics/
[2] For a more detailed analysis, read: https://www.cairn.info/revue-internationale-et-strategique-2023-2-page-75.htm
[3] https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/02/israel-palestine-hamas-gaza-war-russia-ukraine-occupation-west-hypocrisy/
[4] https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142507
[5] https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142932
[6] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/10/20/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-unites-states-response-to-hamass-terrorist-attacks-against-israel-and-russias-ongoing-brutal-war-against-ukraine/
[7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/21/china-brokered-saudi-iran-deal-driving-wave-of-reconciliation-says-wang
[8] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/10/24/the-overstretched-superpower